Australian property values have climbed to record highs with national home values up 0.6% in June alone, marking five straight months of growth. Markets are now pricing a 98% probability of a rate cut at next week's RBA meeting, while auction clearance rates hit 74.5% – the highest since July last year. With the total value of residential property reaching $11.37 trillion and Darwin finally surpassing its 2014 mining boom peak, we're witnessing broad-based momentum that's only just getting started.
Property markets across Australia are firing on all cylinders, and the numbers paint a picture of sustained growth ahead. This week's data confirms what many investors have been anticipating – we're in the early stages of a significant upward cycle. National home values rose 1.4% over the June quarter, with every capital city except Hobart posting gains. Even more encouraging, this growth is accelerating, with the monthly pace nearly doubling from earlier in the year.
What's driving this momentum? The answer lies in the powerful combination of falling interest rates, scarce supply, and renewed buyer confidence. With markets now pricing a 98% chance of another rate cut next week – up from 92% just days ago – buyers are rushing to secure properties before prices move even higher. Independent auctioneer Clarence White captures the mood perfectly: "Early this year you weren't really seeing any auctions with eight, 10 or 15 registered bidders; we've started to have some of those now, and we've started to see bidding with a bit more confidence and a bit more gusto."
Key Highlights
- National property values up 0.6% in June, 1.4% for quarter, marking fifth straight month of growth
- 202 suburbs see house prices jump $100,000+ in past six months
- Markets price 98% probability of rate cut next week, up from 92% before latest data
- National auction clearance rate hits 74.5% – highest since July 2024
- Melbourne leads with 75.2% clearance rate from 1,000 auctions
- Darwin hits record high, finally surpassing 2014 mining boom peak after 11 years
- ANZ slashes fixed rates by up to 35 basis points, leading major banks
- Investor numbers fall for third time in 25 years, down 7,081 in 2022-23
- Advertised stock levels -16.7% below five-year average
New Growth Phase
Australian housing values have officially entered a new growth phase, with June marking the fifth consecutive month of gains following the brief -0.3% dip between November and January. The 0.6% monthly rise takes national values 1.4% higher for the quarter – and this momentum is building, not slowing.
Cotality's research director Tim Lawless leaves no doubt about what's driving this resurgence: "The first rate cut in February was a clear turning point for housing value trends. An additional cut in May, and growing certainty of more cuts later in the year have further fuelled positive housing sentiment, pushing values higher."
What makes this growth phase particularly robust is its breadth. Monthly gains were recorded across almost every region of Australia, with only Hobart (-0.2%) recording a decline. The June quarter saw every capital city and rest-of-state region except Regional Tasmania (-0.4%) post gains.
This isn't the frenzied growth we saw during the pandemic when quarterly gains peaked at 8.1%. As Lawless notes, the current pace is "positively tepid" by comparison. But that's actually good news for sustainability – we're seeing measured, broad-based growth supported by fundamentals rather than speculation.
National dwelling values - quarterly change
As at 30 June, 2025
The standout performer? Darwin, where dwelling values jumped 4.9% for the quarter and 1.5% in June alone. After 11 long years, Darwin has finally surpassed its mining boom peak from May 2014, reaching a new record high. It's a powerful reminder that property cycles can be long, but patient investors are ultimately rewarded.
"Five straight months of growth, 74.5% clearance rates, and every capital except Hobart in positive territory – markets don't give you this many green lights very often. The key is recognising that we're still in the acceleration phase. By the time everyone agrees we're in a boom, the best opportunities are gone," says Godfrey Dinh, CEO of Futurerent.
Supply Squeeze Intensifies Market Pressure
While demand surges, the supply side of the equation continues to tighten dramatically. Advertised stock levels are running 5.8% below the same time last year and a concerning 16.7% below the previous five-year average. This scarcity is creating what Lawless describes as "a more balanced market for buyers and sellers" – though in reality, it's tipping conditions firmly in sellers' favour.
The supply shortage becomes even more stark when you look at transaction volumes. Housing turnover through the first half of the year is tracking at an annualised pace of 4.9%, below the decade-average of 5.1%. In simple terms, fewer people are selling despite rising prices – a classic sign of property owners holding on, expecting further gains.
This dynamic is playing out dramatically at auctions. As independent Sydney auctioneer Clarence White observes: "As interest rates come down, buyer confidence is rising, borrowing capacity is going up, and people are starting to jump." The result? Properties that might have attracted two or three bidders earlier this year are now seeing 10 to 15 registered participants.
The construction pipeline offers no relief. Monthly dwelling approvals remain well below the decade average and far short of the 20,000 required each month to meet housing accord targets. As Lawless warns: "Insufficient levels of new housing are likely to place further upward pressure on housing prices at a time when affordability constraints are already at record levels."
PropTrack's analysis reinforces this view, noting that "population growth and limited new supply are also placing upward pressure on prices, especially at the more affordable end of the market." With interest rates moving lower, these supply constraints will only become more pronounced as buyer demand accelerates. As they conclude: "With interest rates moving lower, these factors are likely to sustain price growth over the second half of 2025."
However, there's a bright spot in the development sector. NSW posted the biggest increase in approvals of higher-density housing over the year to May, with 24,716 approvals – beating Victoria's 22,904 for the first time. This success shows that policy changes, like NSW's density bonuses for affordable housing, can actually work to boost supply when implemented effectively.
Markets Lock In July Rate Cut
The probability of a rate cut at next week's RBA meeting has surged to 98%, up from 92% just before the latest retail sales data showed a weaker-than-expected 0.2% rise in May. This near-certainty reflects growing consensus that the RBA will deliver its third cut of the year on July 8, taking the cash rate from 3.85% to 3.60%.
All four major banks are now unanimous that a cut is coming, though they differ on the trajectory beyond July. Commonwealth Bank and ANZ see only two more cuts through 2025 and early 2026, while NAB has pencilled in three and Westpac forecasts four more cuts potentially coming in August, November, February and May.
The mathematics of these cuts is compelling for borrowers. An owner-occupier with a $600,000 debt and 25 years remaining could see monthly repayments drop by $90 from just one 0.25 percentage point cut. Four more cuts would deliver monthly savings of $350 – substantial relief that will flow directly into increased borrowing power.
ANZ's head of Australian economics Adam Boyton has thrown his weight behind an immediate cut, citing "a weak six-month trend in retail sales, a 'stalled' uptrend in consumer confidence and ongoing uncertainty around US trade policy." He argues that cutting in July represents "the path of least regret" rather than waiting for August's full forecast update.
Financial markets are looking even further ahead, pricing in a cash rate of 3.1% by December and 2.9% through the first quarter of 2026. As Lawless explains: "Lower interest rates go further than improving borrowing capacity and serviceability. Lower debt servicing costs, along with reduced cost-of-living pressures, should support consumer sentiment and high commitment decision making, working in favour of housing demand."
30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Target Implied Expectation of change
When does the RBA meet again?
The board is set to make a decision roughly every six weeks. That's five opportunities to bring down, hold or hike the cash rate this year alone. The remaining dates are:
- July 7 to 8
- August 11 to 12
- September 29 to 30
- November 3 to 4
- December 8 to 9
Auction Markets Fire on All Cylinders
Last week's auction results provide real-time evidence of the market's strength. The combined capitals' preliminary clearance rate of 74.5% was the highest since the first week of July 2024, achieved across 2,103 auctions – up 4.9% from the previous week and 3.6% higher than the same time last year.
Melbourne continues its dominant run, with 1,000 homes going under the hammer and 75.2% clearing successfully. This marks the ninth consecutive week Melbourne's preliminary clearance rate has held above 70% – a remarkable streak that shows no signs of ending. While down slightly from the previous week's 76.6%, the consistency is what matters.
Sydney matched Melbourne's momentum with 784 auctions and a 73.5% clearance rate, marking the third consecutive week above the 70% threshold. Brisbane surprised on the upside with its highest preliminary rate since July last year at 76.1%, while Adelaide posted an impressive 80.8% from 97 auctions.
Looking ahead, Cotality expects auction volumes to dip slightly to around 1,770 homes this week before reducing further to approximately 1,430 the following week. But even with these seasonal variations, the strength in clearance rates suggests buyer demand will remain robust.
Capital City Auction Data (Preliminary)
Domain Chief of Research and Economics Dr Nicola Powell notes that East Coast markets are regaining momentum, though growth still depends on local factors: "Lower interest rates, cheaper borrowing, and targeted support for first-home buyers will keep prices rising, especially in Sydney and Melbourne, which are most sensitive to rate changes."
Property Wealth Reaches New Milestone
The total value of Australia's residential property has climbed to a staggering $11.37 trillion as of March 2025, rising 1.2% over the quarter and almost 6% over the year. This milestone reflects not just price growth but the fundamental role property plays in Australian wealth creation.
To put this in perspective, the number of dwellings grew to just over 11.33 million – up 179,900 over the year. While this sounds substantial, it's well below what the Housing Accord targets require, ensuring continued upward pressure on values.
The state-by-state data reveals interesting patterns. Sydney prices increased 0.2% over the last week, 0.6% over the month, and are now 1.3% higher than 12 months ago. Melbourne, despite its recent struggles, posted identical weekly and monthly gains of 0.2% and 0.5% respectively, though remains 0.4% lower year-on-year. Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth continues their strong run with consistent weekly gains adding up to 8.0%, 7.0%, 7.0% annual growth, respectively.
These "overall" figures mask significant variation within markets. As the data notes, "there is not one Sydney or Melbourne or Brisbane property market" – location, property type, and price point all create distinct sub-markets with their own dynamics.
Change in Dwelling Values - As at 30 June 2025
REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh sees sustained momentum ahead: "Market momentum is building amid renewed buyer confidence and improved sentiment, buoyed by falling interest rates and expectations of another rate cut in July." However, she notes the upturn remains "measured as affordability constraints keep the pace of growth in check."
"That $11.37 trillion represents over 11 million properties, but with only 179,900 added last year against 444,000 new residents, the supply-demand equation is getting tighter by the month. Stock levels sit 16.7% below average and we're still building 60,000 homes short of target annually – this isn't a market that's overheated, it's one that's undersupplied," observes Godfrey Dinh, CEO of Futurerent.
Six-Figure Gains Spread Beyond Premium Markets
One of the most striking developments is how rapidly property wealth is being created across diverse markets. PropTrack data reveals that house prices jumped by $100,000 or more in 202 suburbs over just six months – and it's not limited to prestige postcodes.
Sydney predictably dominates with 65 suburbs achieving six-figure gains, including eye-watering increases in waterfront Sylvania Waters (up $597,000), Greenwich ($532,000), and northern beaches favourites like Cammeray and Balgowlah Heights (both up $450,000). But the real story is in more affordable areas – suburbs like Bankstown, Mount Pritchard and Minchinbury, all sub-$1.5 million markets, also notched $100,000-plus gains.
Perth delivered 41 suburbs with six-figure growth, led by blue-chip riverside Dalkeith (up $305,000) and coastal City Beach (up $300,000). Brisbane contributed 24 suburbs to the list, with Surfers Paradise jumping $450,000 and inner-ring suburbs like Ashgrove, Red Hill and Toowong seeing substantial gains. Adelaide added 23 suburbs to the tally, while even subdued Melbourne managed eight.
PropTrack's Anne Flaherty sees this broad-based growth continuing: "There are very strong expectations that prices are going to rise throughout this year. There's a lot of factors that are going to support buyer demand." She particularly notes increased investor activity and expanded first-home buyer policies coming in early 2026.
The geographic spread of these gains reveals important market dynamics. Brisbane's 80% growth over five years is pushing buyers into more affordable suburbs, while Perth's inner city, riverfront and coastal locations continue to attract premium prices. Even in expensive Sydney, the action has spread well beyond the traditional eastern suburbs and lower north shore.
ANZ Shakes Up Lending Landscape
In a strategic move ahead of next week's RBA meeting, ANZ has slashed fixed home loan rates by 10-35 basis points across one to five-year terms, positioning itself as the cheapest fixed-rate lender among the big four banks. The bank's new one-year and two-year fixed rates of 5.29% and 5.19% respectively undercut its major competitors significantly.
The timing is no coincidence. As Mozo analysis reveals, ANZ is "moving on the assumption more cash rate cuts are imminent." The move comes as lending data shows remarkably few customers are choosing to fix rates – just 3% of ANZ's residential mortgage book is on fixed terms, leaving 97% on variable rates free to refinance without penalties.
Canstar's Sally Tindall sees this as strategic positioning: "This move by ANZ consolidates its lead as the lowest-cost fixed rate lender out of the majors. The bank is factoring in the possibility of further cash rate cuts, which could be coming down the line as soon as next week."
While ANZ's rates represent significant cuts, smaller lenders are going even further. Pacific Mortgage Group offers 4.99% for one-year fixed terms, while Easy Street has dropped to 4.95% for two-year fixed loans. With variable rates for new customers averaging about 5.74%, the gap is narrowing rapidly.
The competitive dynamics are shifting the entire market. As Tindall notes: "A total of 13 different lenders now offering at least one fixed rate under 5 per cent." This price competition, combined with falling cash rates, is creating ideal conditions for both new buyers and those looking to refinance.
Investor Retreat Creates Opportunity
In a surprising twist, recent data published by the ATO shows the number of property investors declaring rental income fell by 7,081 in 2022-23 – only the third annual decline in 25 years. The previous occasions coincided with the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, making this retreat particularly noteworthy.
The decline was concentrated among investors with multiple properties. While those with just one rental property actually increased by 2,337, investors with two or more properties fell across the board. The more properties owned, the larger the decline – suggesting leveraged investors were feeling the pressure of rapid rate rises during that period.
Cotality's head of research Eliza Owen provides context: "Between June 2022 and 2023, the average outstanding investor mortgage rate rose from 3.88% to 6.6%, increasing the repayment on a $500,000 loan by $830 per month. By comparison, median monthly rent values in Australia increased by $316."
This investor pullback has created opportunities for other buyers. As Owen notes, it might have freed up stock for owner-occupiers, though ABS lending data shows investors are already returning. They now make up around 38% of borrowing in the March quarter, up from 25-30% during the pandemic years.
While single property investors actually grew slightly (+0.1% or 2,337 investors), those with multiple properties all declined, with losses accelerating based on portfolio size. The data reveals that investors with 2 properties fell -1.1%, those with 3 properties dropped -2.0%, 4 properties down -1.8%, 5 properties fell -3.6%, and those with 6 or more properties declined -2.9%, confirming that the more rentals an investor owned, the more likely they were to exit the market during the 2022-23 rate rise period.
Percentage change in size of each investor cohort between 2021-22 and 2022-23
Property Investors Council chair Ben Kingsley warns about the longer-term implications: "Add these numbers to the exodus we are seeing in Victoria, and it's blatantly clear we have a housing supply problem, partly because investors running their private rentals are tapping out." Victoria alone lost more than 24,000 rentals during 2024 – 3.6% of the state's entire rental stock.
"The scale of this investor retreat becomes clearer in historical context. In a typical year, Australia sees around 47,000 new investors enter the market. The loss of 7,081 represents not just a decline, but a reversal of normal growth patterns. Over the five years to mid-2023, the average annual increase in investor numbers was just 10,600 — dramatically below the 53,000-64,000 experienced during previous five-year periods. This slowdown in investor participation has serious implications for future rental supply."
Annual change in the number of investors declaring rental income
Bars show the annual increase or decrease in property investors declaring rental income.
ABS lending figures reveal that investors represented 25-30% of property lending from late 2019 through late 2021, but have since rebounded to approximately 38% of all home loans by March 2025, indicating a strong return of investor activity to the market.
Strategic Outlook Points Higher
Looking ahead, all indicators point to sustained growth through 2025 and beyond. Cotality's Tim Lawless is unequivocal: "Given the upside risk that housing values will accelerate further from here as interest rates reduce, the reality is we will likely see home values rise by more than this over the coming 12 months."
The national quarterly growth rate of 1.4% annualises to 5.8%, already above the decade average of 5.2%. But this baseline scenario looks conservative given the confluence of supporting factors. PropTrack expects momentum to build further, noting: "With interest rates moving lower, these factors are likely to sustain price growth over the second half of 2025."
Several key dynamics will drive this growth. First, the competition between first-home buyers and investors for similar properties in the mid-lower price ranges will intensify. Second, the chronic undersupply of new housing shows no signs of improving, with approvals running well below requirements. Third, population growth continues to add demand pressure, with the 15-years-plus population increasing by 444,000 over the past year.
Real estate professionals on the ground confirm the shifting dynamics. Jackson Cox from Richard Matthews Real Estate warns: "If you're not ready to commit, you're going to miss out on opportunities." This urgency is spreading as buyers recognise that waiting for further rate cuts means competing in an even hotter market.
"Every indicator – from clearance rates to lending data to builder confidence – points in the same direction," says Godfrey Dinh, CEO of Futurerent. "We're not hoping for growth; we're watching it unfold in real-time across every major market."
Market Outlook
Australia's property market has decisively turned the corner, with June's data confirming we're in the early stages of a sustained growth phase. The 98% probability of a RBA rate cut next week isn't just another milestone – it's validation that the growth cycle is about to accelerate.
The breadth of this upturn sets it apart from recent cycles. Darwin breaking 11-year records, Melbourne posting nine straight weeks above 70% clearance rates, Brisbane suburbs gaining $100,000 in six months – these aren't isolated pockets of strength but evidence of a broader synchronised national movement.
Looking forward, the path seems clear. With the cash rate headed to 3.1% by December and potentially 2.9% by early 2026, borrowing capacity will expand dramatically. An owner-occupier with a $600,000 loan could save $350 monthly if all forecast cuts materialise – money that will flow directly into higher borrowing capacities and increased savings rates.
Supply constraints add tailwind for valuations. With advertised stock 16.7% below the five-year average and new approvals languishing, the fundamental imbalance between supply and demand will worsen before it improves. This scarcity premium will be particularly pronounced in established areas with limited development potential.
For investors, the message from this week's data is clear: the market momentum is building, and those who act decisively will be best positioned to benefit from the growth cycle.
How Futurerent Helps
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With market conditions suggesting significant opportunities ahead, having quick access to capital could make all the difference in securing your next investment before prices potentially move higher.
